Showing posts with label derivative. Show all posts
Showing posts with label derivative. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

How was my Forex game ?

After setting up my forex game in just 15 minutes, I let the 'winning formula' runs by itself for the past 12 hours.  While I eat, dine and wine as usual.  I have just earned $64 !


First check the Account History to see what your formula has bought and sold for you.  As you can see below, I only win BIG in 1 or 2 trades, most of the other trades are actually losing trades.


This can be seen from below graph too, the formula successfully caught one major down trend.  When the market goes side way, many small loses are made.


So I test the formula again for the past 24 hours


Instead of earning profit for me from 30th to 31st August, this formula now is losing me money if I would have traded from 31st August to 1st Sep.


So was it just pure luck ?

  • Moving Average with those big parameters are meant to catch big trend change and indeed that was what it did exactly.  When market goes smaller side trend, it starts to trade too late and caused loses.

  • So each formula is good at certain condition and until today, there isn't one formula that can cater for all situations

  • The so called world champion strategy has about 48% success rate when left running over a long period of time.

  • But The good thing is now we can test our strategies before we actually enter market.



Learn to PLAY Forex in 15 minutes


Truly understand Forex may be as tough as understanding world economy.  But 'playing' forex is NOT any tougher than any number game.  I have stopped forex for a couple of years now, recently I got some spare time ( Happy Raya Merdeka Day to fellow Malaysian !) so I re-learn and start to play again in 15 minutes, perhaps you can try too.

  1. Register an account with Oanda  (Choose Practice account)

  2. Login to Oanda

  3. Create sub account, enable use with MetaTrader under Advance Option

  4. Download MetaTrader, install it.

  1. Run MetaTrader, Login using account number, not the user name

  2. Launch Strategy Tester under View menu ( CTRL-R )

  3. enter basic parameters and click Start

  4. view Report to see if this method can earn money

  5. Modify Expert Properties until satisfy with result

  6. Da da !  I have a sure win strategy in Forex !!

Ok, the last statement is a lie.  But there are 'teachers' collecting $3,000++ for a course just like this thao.

All that 'proves' is that Moving Average with those particular parameters can earn me a hundred or two bucks from 30th to 31st August 2011.  It implies almost nothing at all how it can preform before and after that.

Important but boring notes
  • I choose Oanda because almost 48% of its users are earning while others only have 20-30% success rate.  Oanda is also having the largest users base.

  • Investing with real money in Forex is the beginning of the end even for some billionaires.  It is almost a Guarantee place to die if you don't truly understand forex yet.  So play it like a game all you want, but never ever invest in Forex just because this blog makes it seems so simple.

  • The true message MalPF wants to share is that you must use EA if you truly serious want to invest in Forex.

  • Can't even get passed signing up, download and login with Oanda ?  Just click the LIVE HELP button on their web page, someone will chat and help you.

  • You are still clueless how to 'play' forex ?  Good, you shouldn't then.

Alright, here are some screen shots ... 

1. Register Oanda

2. Login



 3. Create sub account, enable MetaTrader


 

4. 1.  Download and login MetaTrader



2. Open Strategy Tester window ( usually at the bottom )




3. Enter parameters, click Start to analyse


4. View Report to see if it is satisfactory



5.  if not, tune 'Expert Properties' until happy.






6.  If still need helps, pay me $3,000 and I will teach you in person in Starbuick. *joke*



When you have found your jewel guarantee to win strategy, its time to enable the automated trading ( on a practice account ), leave it there and then check the result later.



Tuesday, August 30, 2011

How to automate trade Forex

After you setup a demo account, test proof a winning strategy, you can let that the system to trade for you automatically.


Make sure Expert Advisor is running ( green color )


Then select the strategy you want to use, right click and Attach to a chart.


Click on Live Trading ( on a practice account )



Make sure the parameters are as what you wanted


Sit back and just watch the system trade for you.



How this demo is setup in 15 minutes
and how much it has earned me in the past 12 hours even without me working on it.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

21st century Economy Politic Quadrant


The Economy-Political Quadrant may seems like telling where to keep or invest your money despite good or bad time.


It indeed works very well during 20th century. Unfortunately comes to 21st century, not only has the year changed, personal finance arena has changed drastically as well.

Gold has been speculated so much that it MAY no longer be the standard of money.

There used to be only 'property' in the city. Now there are satellite towns, suburbs ... agriculture lands and even dust bins ( recycle ) have become valuable estates too. While property remains the right category to invest into whenever economy is booming, but predict the right future seems like tougher than buying lottery.

Government bonds used to be de-Facto action when a country is stable. But in today's world, a country is as smart as a taicon's finance. One day they are the LARGEST, the next day they are GONE.

Stock market used to be the back bone of a country's economy. However, the market of derivatives has become so HUGE that the REAL and PHYSICAL is NO LONGER more real than VIRTUAL

So in 21st century, the element of Stock-Property-Funds-Gold is really questionable. However, one fundamental that doesn't change is that

you will have to identify what to do at what time that is BEST for YOU !

Hope you will find your own very best Economy-Political Quadrant soon !


Sunday, June 27, 2010

Recession over, what's NeXT ?

Sometimes I feel very depress when my prediction comes TRUE.

For those who don't know yet, Malaysia is going through a transition where political power could potentially shared between 2 parties; instead of just one-side-say-it-all like the past 50 years. Unfortunately, the initial phase of this transition has ended in a way when our new Prime Minister has strategically resolved it.

At the moment New Economy Model was presented, I immediately sensed the game err they plan to play. Because exactly the same game plan has been played in USA before. While it is true that Malaysia CAN become a developed nation by adopting those moves but it has also been proven that such finance structure is NOT sustainable. Just see what has happened in USA and what is happening in Europe.

Although as if recession is over now, actual effective inflation experience the SHARPEST rise in last 2 months, as high as 25% to 50% if you visit hypermarket often. That is not the worst. What is happening now is that major manufacturers are deceiving consumers in large scale openly. While their products have inflated severely, they run advertisements and promotions as if their products are ON OFFER ! All these are done as part of the exercise to smoothen the transition into a developed nation, hence they have government support behind the scene at all cost. Ahem ... at consumer's cost that is. While these are nothing new to those who have seen it all, but sadly ... there are more consumers falling into it than realizing it at all.


As mentioned in what can we do when bully by the big boys, there is probably nothing much we can do to STOP anything now. So there are just a few things we can probably watch carefully and ride on so that we can get a piece of the pie too ...

  • Property will rise drastically. Wherever you are staying right now and despite how much you like it, it may become more worth while to sell it off in the next 10 years. So do plan ahead where you may want to stay 5-15 years later. This may become your LAST and ONLY ticket when the nation is developed and you are still under developing.

  • Double your salary in the next 2-3 years. If you wait till the wave carries you, you will always stay behind. You salary WILL increase AFTER the effect of inflation fully kick in. But by then, your increased salary will mean much less. So you really have to think for yourself now. If you are really royal to your employer, your employer should have seen this coming too and take care of you but did it ?
Other than that, derived finance products like futures, options and forex will over shine proper financial planning so much that a lot of weird and ad-hoc theories will surface out. Most people will no longer be able to differentiate what the real proper investment is. On the other hand, that is due to more and more improper investments will actually obtain real returns for the new few years. So if all you care is to get more money, then it should fine temporary.

Hence, MalPF only has one advice to all. Be deviated all you want, just remember to engage an exit strategy and keep yourself in high cash flow condition.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Tick Size Weightage, should it be lower or higher ?

Unlike MOTS which is pretty much factual, tick size effect on the other hand has many disputable intrepretations.

Tick size is the smallest gap one investment vehicle can move its price to. For example, RM 1.01 with a tick size of RM 0.01 can make its next smallest movement to either RM 1.00 or RM 1.02. It can NEVER be RM 1.005 nor RM 1.015 for example.

Tick size is usually defined within a range of price. For example, from RM 1.00 to RM 9.99, the tick size is RM 0.01.

Tick size weightage is the tick size over the price. For example, RM 0.01 over RM 1 is 1%.

Because the tick size is definied with a range of price, the tick size weightage will differ from one price to another. For example, RM 0.01 over RM 2 is only 0.5% in relation to 1% for the RM1 example.

Some people treats tick size as an investment cost. Because if you buy and sell immediately, the buy sell spread is usually 1 tick size away (only apply to liquid investment vehicles). So you will always be selling one stick size lower than your buying price. For example, if you have just buy a share price at RM 1.01 and you want to sell it immediately, the highest buyer price would most probably be at RM 1.00, hence you may lost an additional1% of your investment by selling immediately.

For this reason some people prefer smaller tick size. The smaller it is, the lowest cost it is.

Some other people want to sell stocks to make profit as soon as possible, ie. in one tick away. However, there are always some cost associate to investment. For example in stock investment, there are brokerage fee, stamp duty and clearing fee. Assume it is 1.68% excluding the tick size effect following this example. If you sell at next up tick size which would earn you 1%, minusing the cost you still lost 0.68%.

In this scenario, one would want the tick size to be bigger than its transaction cost. In above example, the tick size should be more than 1.68%. That way, one could earn money with just one tick away - Fast and Furious !

So as you may see, sometimes we want to tick size to be as small as possible, some other times we want the tick size to be larger than our transactional cost.

Some may have spotted the problematic argument above that if tick size is bigger than transactional cost, no doubt one can 'earn' when the tick goes up, but he will lose 'MORE' when the tick goes down. Hence he is taking a big risk to expect a small reward. Although that is true, but in order to earn money the 'fastest' way, you will need this big tick size. In other words, its a risk you will have to take if you want fast profit.

Therefore, people who want bigger tick size are usually speculators. Their aims are to earn money quick. Even in a falling market, it is still possible for speculator to earn from small up trend at a particular time.

On the other hand, people who want smaller tick size are usually longer term investor. They usually have a target price and such a target is usually quite many ticks away. Hence, the size of ONE tick doest NOT bother them that much. Except that if the tick size is small, they can earn more in long run by paying lower cost.

So Long Term Investors
wants smaller tick size
while
Speculators wants bigger tick size

Do you like smaller or bigger tick size ?

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Mahathir also dislike Forex ?

Read from chedet (english version) on mata wang, is he refering to Forex ?

But from the way he is 'accusing' today's world finance model including hedge funds shows that Tun M. is STILL in a denial mode.  Despite how bad hedge fund and forex CAN BECOME, but the finance tool itself is not at fault.

I hope Tun M will read my 3 parts money turns evil stories one day.

Its already a FACT hedge fund is overtaking mutual fund, its also a fact the forex is the largest and most liquid market in the world.  Its just like long ago, we didn't need money when we did the barter exchange thing.  But eventually 'Money' became a fact of life although till today theoritically its NOT really needed if we Human are perfect.

Its also like a fact that value of money is NO longer tight to Gold.  Gold is limited, currency is not.  Despite how bad it is, its already a fact for many years.  Despite it almost melted down the whole western finance world, its going to come back as it was.

So its a fact that Human are not homogenius, keeping the good for Everyone is NOT our priority but keeping the good for Ourselves is.  Many still think Everyone = Ourselves and there is where the paradox lays.

HATING hedge fund and forex blindly is NOT any better than LOVING them blindly.  Both are idiots and will only continue contribute wealth to the rich.  Its only a matter of doing it directly or indirectly.

Forex - the RIGHT way - Must use EA

I just realize this is one of the draft articles that has been sitting in my to-publish-list for more than 3 months but didn't get out in time to help people earlier. In short, I do NOT promote Forex investment because you really need to learn enough to do it but the fact is that you WILL NOT learn enough on it and you WILL invest in it before you learn enough. But such plain statement did not stop anyone to get into Forex and troubles. So I thought I may as well share the right way to do it, although carrying the risk of pushing more people to the dangerous world of leveraging - which already proven failed in this current financial break down in western world. Anyway, this post is stressing on EA - if you don't know what this is, don't forex !

1. download FREE forex trading software from MetaTrader4

MetaTrader4 is the foundation software for all the other forex brokers. If you don't want to download from MetaTrader you may try get a demo account from Interbank or Forex.com, they all use MetaTrader4 software anyway. Forex.com is known to have the smallest price gap which is very important especially when you have limited capital.

2. Get the demo account for FREE and then learn to buy, sell, long, short using the trading platform. Make as many buy sell transactions as you can and observe why the result is different than you would expect.

3. Understand price gap which is Different in each currency pair. You should eventually find out that there are only 3-6 currency pairs that you should trade in because they have the smallest price gap. This price gap is dynamic and it is possible that the gap changes right at the moment you execute a transaction, although not often.

4. Understand Expert Advisor feature in the software, you should learn (a) how to use it and how to (b)implement your own trading strategy.

5. Use real money ONLY after you have found an investment strategy that is proven can bring you return more than 60% of the time.

6. Apply money management, risk reward ratio, win lost ratio etc.

More on EA (step 4)
EA or short for Expert Advisor is one of single top most powerful feature why dump general public can earn money from Forex scientifically and systematically.

EA is a script that you can write yourself to get any data out from your trading platform, do anything you want with the data and then make decision on what transaction to take.

In short, if you have any investment ideas, you can TEST the idea and SEE if it works right in front of your own eyes! From the test result itself, you may further fine tune your investment ideas until you think you have gotten the right methodology, then you can invest with your real money in confident.

The most attractive elements in Forex is its liquidity and its HIGH leverage. It is the same liquidity and leverage that kill multi billionaires. So these 2 factors apply the same to everyone who trade Forex, sometimes it helps you, some other times it kills you. Its all up to your luck which way it turns.

However, EA is the ONLY quantifiable element in Forex (for FREE) that differentiates one investor than another. Because every investor has his own idea. And the ability to test, verify and 'PROVE' this idea for FREE is upmost powerful.

It is also the one last compulsory step but NOT many people have enough persistency to walk through the whole process. Which explains why 90% of the poor ALWAYS contribute to the 10% rich even in Forex.


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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Currency Turns Evil - part 3

Money was created to ease up buy sell transactions, you no longer have to take in 100 chickens just because you want to sell your diamond ring.

Since each country has its own system and seldom cross borders in the past, each of their money is different in unit called currency.

Then, country needs to do business with another country. They have to sychronize the value of their currency, they use gold for that purpose.

Slowly some smart 'finance' guy realizes that the 'impression of Gold' is as good as the real gold to increase value of their currency.  ( actually the impression is much better and easier to acquire than the real gold )

If the value of currency is just like the value of any traded goods - govern by supply and demand, why don't we trade the currency like the way we buy sell stocks ?

F O R E X is borned !


Before I proceed further, let me set the record straight that Forex is one of the most liquidated market which has Total Freedom.  Something I always pursue all finance institutions to go for.  So there are many good things about Forex.  However, there is one aspect that is evil, very evil indeed - and that is the part I am going to talk about here - its room for an unlimited speculative nature.

To Buy or Not To Buy ? JUST SAY IT  ...

So in Forex you buy sell currency like you buy sell anything.  And the item for sale is in the form of currency pair like this GBP/USD  (buying Pound with USD).  Says someone is selling 10 units at USD1.5125 each and you buy all 10 units.  Then the next seller is selling 5 units at USD 1.5200 and you buy all 5 units too, then the next seller is selling 1 unit at USD 1.5205.  So GBP value has just rised from USD 1.5125 to USD 1.5205 because you have bought the 15 units of GBP/USD.

correction :  You said you want to buy those 15 units but you actually don't.

like wise, the seller who said selling you the currency ... guess what ?  He doesn't have any Pound Steering neither !  He just said he want to sell you !

There is no real money involved !  What happened is the seller and the buyer have committed into a contract for the above transaction.  The contract stated a future date for the actual buy sell transaction.  So before the contracted date, you can resell what you have bought but haven't paid yet.

Remember just now you said you want to buy 15 units of 'goods' ?  If you sell them out at your purchased price before the contract expiry date, you will earn and lose Nothing - Zero !  But throughout the process, you have increased the value of GBP at that particular time.

Buy A Million with A Dollar

Another unique thing in Forex is what forex guys normally called it 'leverage'.  Basically you can say you want to buy 3 million of GBP with only USD 1,000 capital.  

Since there is no real currency involved and it is all about what the seller and buyer said, the real profit and lost is the difference of the movement.  For example, changes from USD 1.52 to USD 1.53 is only 1 cent difference.  So you don't have to have USD 1.52 to buy anything.  As long as you have 1 cent, you can say you want to buy the thing but as soon as you make a lost of 1 cent, the system automatically sell your contract out and deduct your 1 cent.

Lastly ...

Sorry if this write up is a bit boring.  This is a topic that cannot easily get agreement and I am trying my very best to express this in my laymen view ...

So by now you can see how you can use a minimum capital to speculate the value of a country's currency at ease - just say it !

Says you are an USA international trader.  You are buying 10,000 phone booths from England.

England quoted you GBP 1,000 each.

Currency Exchange at that time is 1 GBP = 1.50 USD

So your total payment is USD 15 millions

If you know forex very well, you can speculate sell GBP at lower price or buy USD at higher price until 1 GBP = 1.40 USD

If you managed to do that, you have just saved USD 1 million !!  

And your seller has just lost an equivalent amount !! 


This is actually happening every day !  A lot of 3rd world international wholesale businesses do not use forex in their finance management, their business profit range at 5-15%.  And their business contracts are usually renewable in 3 and 6 months and mostly in 1 to 2 years.  Everytime when the currency exchange flutuate more than 15-20%, they will lost all their profit ... no matter how smart they sell, no matter how much they mark up the selling price, no matter how much cost saving they did .... a cunning business counterpart can easily overturn all their effort just by Saying It !!

Guess what ?  There is no such thing as MYR pair in Forex trading.  MYR is so small that one single investor like George Soro can brankup a whole country simply by trading currency.

So the next time you are trading currency ... you are most probably NOT trading to bring up the value of your own country's value.  Instead you are most probably just helping USA and Britain ...

You can earn a lot in Forex no doubt ... but beware at what cost.

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3

Friday, November 7, 2008

Derivative - Options

Just to emphasize, this is not the FULL picture yet ... so dont make impulse decision that you want to go trade options straight away ... it will require quite long a study ...

source from http://teraoptions.com/stock1.html